Reasons to be voted

Pulse Asia asked their respondents why they were voting for a particular candidate. The five top reasons cited were:

“Hindi kurakot/malinis” (Does not steal/is clean) (21.2 percent);

“May nagawa, may magagawa” (Has done a lot/can do a lot) (14 percent);

“Para sa mahirap, galing sa mahirap” (Pro-poor/comes from the poor) (12.2 percent);

“Tumutulong” (Helps a lot) (12 percent);

“Reputasyon ng pamilya” (Family reputation) (4.2 percent).

4 senators inhibit selves from anti-dynasty measure

By Christina Mendez (The Philippine Star)

MANILA, Philippines - Four senators, who are scions of political families, have strongly expressed their intent to inhibit themselves from the passage of the Anti-Political Dynasty Act that would ban any spouse or relative of an incumbent elective official to run for any elected office.

The senators signed the committee report on the Anti-Political Dynasty Act, but admitted plans to hold it back.

Sen. Panfilo Lacson, the bill’s principal sponsor, re-filed the measure just before Congress went into recess last Oct. 14.

The measure is recommended for approval without amendment before the Senate plenary. If passed into law, the measure will be effective in the May 10, 2010 elections.

Sen. Francis Escudero, who bolted last Wednesday from the Nationalist People’s Coalition (NPC) in his fight against so-called traditional and party politics, signed the report as chairman of the Senate Committee on Constitutional Amendments, Revision of Codes and Laws.

He vowed to “sponsor” the measure even if there was “potential conflict of interest” on his part.

Escudero’s father is Salvador Escudero III, a congressman from Sorsogon who was a member of the Marcos cabinet. The senator’s great grandfather, Salvador Sr., and grandfather, Salvador Jr., were also politicians of their time in Casiguran, Sorsogon.

Aside from Escudero, Senators Benigno Simeon Aquino III, Rodolfo Biazon, Loren Legarda, Manuel Roxas II, Jamby Madrigal, Richard Gordon, Lito Lapid, Joker Arroyo and Francis Pangilinan signed the report as committee members.

Sen. Pia Cayetano, also a member of the committee, did not sign the report, notably because her brother, Sen. Alan Peter Cayetano is also a member of the Senate.

Their father, the late Rene Cayetano, was a senator. Sen. Alan’s wife, Lani, is incumbent congresswoman of Taguig.

Ex-officio members Senate President Pro-Tempore Jinggoy Estrada, Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri, and Minority Leader Aquilino Pimentel Jr. also signed the report.

Although they signed the measure, Lapid, Zubiri, and Estrada separately noted that they “may have to inhibit due to possible conflict of interest,” while Arroyo signed with “serious reservation.”

Aquino, who has been banking on the political influence of his parents, the late Sen. Benigno “Ninoy” Aquino Jr. and late President Corazon Aquino, in his presidential bid, said he would interpellate on the measure.

Lapid’s son, Mark, is also a former Pampanga governor. The senator is reportedly mulling to leave the Senate and return to Pampanga where he intends to run again for governor next year.

On the other hand, Jinggoy is a member of a political empire founded by his father, former President Joseph Estrada who has declared his bid to run anew for the presidency.

Ex-president Estrada’s wife, Dr. Loi Ejercito, recently retired from politics but without first being elected as senator while the former president was still in jail on plunder charges.

Apart from Jinggoy and Loi, one of the ex-president’s sons with another woman, Juan Victor (JV) Ejercito, is mayor of San Juan.

Zubiri is a scion of Bukidnon Gov. Jose Ma. Zubiri Jr. His brother, Jose Ma, Zubiri II and the governor’s nephew Ignacio Zubiri are also involved in local politics in the province.

In Malacañang, President Arroyo is seen as the best example of what political dynasty is. Presidential sons Dato and Juan Miguel Arroyo are representatives of Camarines Sur and Pampanga, respectively. The president’s brother-in-law, Ignacio Arroyo, is a representative of Negros while Rep. Ma. Lourdes Arroyo, another sibling of First Gentleman Jose Miguel Arroyo, has been accredited recently as a representative of Kasangga party-list group.

Voters’ right to choose leaders

However, the passage of the measure may again be derailed because Congress is in recess until Nov. 8 and will resume session from Nov. 9 to 20.

Congress will have a break again from Nov. 21 to Nov. 30, presumably to allow candidates to file their certificates of candidacy.

During the resumption of session between Dec. 1 to Dec. 18, the lawmakers hands will be full with the continuation of deliberations on the 2010 General Appropriations Act set to be passed before Christmas break on Dec. 19.

By January 2010, candidates for national and local posts are expected to be busy with their respective campaigns.

Before Lacson, the anti-dynasty bill was first advocated by Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago who has expressed disappointment over Congress’ dilly-dallying with the passage of the measure in past Congresses.

In his explanatory note for Senate Bill 1468, Lacson lamented that Congress failed to pass the law since its first filing during the 8th Congress because most lawmakers come from “well-entrenched political clans.”

Under the measure, political dynasty refers to the concentration, consolidation or perpetuation of political power by persons related to one another.

“Unfortunately, despite numerous attempts to introduce an anti-political dynasty law (as early as the 8th Congress) to effect electoral reforms and level the political landscape, Congress failed to pass such a law,” Lacson said.

He added that the inaction can be attributed to the fact that many members of Congress came from well-entrenched political clans.

“Over the years, they have successfully argued for the so-called electorate’s right to choose their elected leaders using the oft-repeated principle that sovereignty resides in the people and all government authority emanates from them,” the senator said.

Palace puzzled at Ebdane's bid for president

By Christine Avendaño, TJ Burgonio - Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines--Why only now?

The ruling coalition’s choice of its presidential standard-bearer has yet to be finalized and President Macapagal-Arroyo herself has told him the post is open to everybody.

So said Public Works Secretary Hermogenes Ebdane who acknowledged on Friday that he is indeed interested in running for president in 2010.

“I have become interested,” said Ebdane, a former national police chief, speaking to reporters at a Senate hearing yesterday into the use of the road user’s tax.

“I think under the circumstances, I can join the fight,” he said.

Officials of the ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD are baffled by Ebdane’s sudden interest in running for president, saying they had no hint that the secretary was harboring any political ambitions.

“Why only now?” said Gabriel Claudio, the party secretary general and presidential political adviser. “If he can tell us formally what his plans are, then we’ll see how the party can help.”

He said Ebdane, who is not a party member, has not formally informed the Lakas-Kampi-CMD about his plans nor made any move to join the administration party.

“Party members are perplexed by his timing,” Claudio said, adding that Ebdane had not tried to sound off either Executive Secretary Eduardo Ermita, the Lakas-Kampi-CMD president, or himself about his plans.

Print advertisements praising Ebdane’s qualities and proclaiming him to be a good alternative to professional politicians have appeared in several broadsheets in the past few days.

The ads ask: “Di kaya si Jun Ebdane ang Tamang Daan sa 2010?” (Could Jun Ebdane be the right way in 2010?)

Last Thursday, Surigao del Sur Gov. Vicente Pimentel Jr. announced that about 15 governors from Mindanao were pushing for Ebdane’s selection as the ruling party’s presidential standard-bearer.

The governors are said to favor him because of the infrastructure and development projects that he has brought to the region which supposedly shows his concern for Mindanao.

Request rejected

It was learned from reliable source, however, that Ebdane had made a last-minute attempt to have the Sept. 16 meeting of the ruling party’s national executive committee postponed. But his request was rejected.

In that meeting, the committee members endorsed Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro as the administration presidential standard-bearer in 2010.

Asked what party he would align himself with, Ebdane said that would depend on “developments,” adding that he had other “alternatives.”

Ebdane said that even as early as a year ago, people and groups “from several sectors, in the national and barangay levels” had been asking him to enter the race for Malacañang.

The public works secretary said he told the groups urging him to seek the presidency that running for president was no walk in the park and that they should truly support him and not abandon him in the end.

Asked whether he had informed the President about his interest in the presidency, he said: “I insinuated to her that there were people convincing me to run and she said that the position was open … for everybody.”

'Presidency or nothing’

He evaded a question about being pitted against Teodoro, saying that the administration coalition has not finalized its choice of presidential standard-bearer.

Ebdane also would not say who his choice of running mate would be, repeatedly saying that many things were still bound to happen since the filing of candidacy papers was not till November.

He also refused to answer questions on whether he thought Teodoro would make a good presidential candidate.

“Let’s respect everybody. I respect Gibo. He’s a good man,” he said.

Asked whether he was optimistic about getting Ms Arroyo’s support, he said the question was too “personal” and declined to answer.

Asked to comment on the tendency of some politicians to float the idea that they are running for president when what they actually want is to seek a Senate seat, Ebdane said that for him “it (was the presidency) or nothing.” He added that he was not a politician.

But should he decide not to run for public office in 2010, Ebdane said he could always return to his Zambales home province and engage in farming as well as “help whoever may be there.”

Claudio, however, indicated it might be too late for Ebdane to seek the party’s endorsement as presidential standard-bearer.

He pointed out that the party’s endorsement of Teodoro, while it has yet to be ratified, was the consensus of the national executive committee, the party’s highest governing body.

“The committee is the highest ruling body of the party. A consensus has been reached. A clear preference has been expressed. Gibo has the formal endorsement of the national executive committee,” he said.

If Ebdane were to suddenly express a desire to join the party and seek its endorsement, this would be “tossed” to the national executive committee for deliberation, according to Claudio.

But he noted that the deadline for non-party members to join the party and submit to the selection process for standard-bearer was Sept. 15.

“The deadline did not apply only to Vice President Noli de Castro but to all aspirants who were seeking the party’s endorsement. Everyone was aware of the deadline,” he said.

‘Outstanding contributions’

Claudio doubted Ebdane’s bid, if it pushes through, would cause cracks in the party, pointing out that officials endorsing Ebdane have vowed to abide by the party’s choice of standard-bearer.

“Even those endorsing or giving recognition of his qualifications are declaring that they will abide by the final decision,” he said.

Claudio said he and Ermita would talk to Ebdane, whom he described as a “valued Cabinet member” with “outstanding contributions,” about his political plans.

A spokesperson for the Department of Public Works and Highways yesterday said Ebdane’s campaign for president was gaining ground.

More ads coming

Undersecretary Romeo Momo said Ebdane had the support of local officials who he said had paid for the advertisements that appeared in newspapers endorsing Ebdane’s candidacy. He said more ads are expected to come out in the next few days.

Momo said the ads, which appeared in several national dailies, were “voluntarily done by the local leaders because they wanted to encourage the secretary to run following the greater demand to lead the country within.”

There have also been radio commercials featuring Ebdane. Some DPWH employees have also started wearing orange shirts, with the message, “We want a new face in 2010!” With a report from Kristine L. Alave

Gilbert should be competitive

It is a steep, uphill climb to the presidency in the 2010 elections, particularly if you are a contender for the nomination of the Lakas-Kampi-CMD. But it is not nearly an impossible undertaking if you happen to be Gilbert Cojuangco Teodoro, currently secretary of National Defense in the Arroyo administration.

The key is to be able to show to the right people that four months from now, or about December of this year, one can demonstrate that the candidacy is competitive.

The three principal measures of strengths and weaknesses of any candidate are the electoral track record, the composite survey results of SWS and Pulse Asia and the controlled votes of the various political machines. While other measures may be brought to bear in the contest, these will give deeper understanding of the standing of the various candidates vying for the presidency.

Electoral track record

The first crucial measure is the electoral track record of the various contenders. It gives you the idea of the pulling power of the candidate in past electoral contests and is usually a dependable gauge on future performances. Previous form often heralds future results.


Top vote getters

Joseph Estrada 10 million plus 1998 won as president
Mar Roxas 19 million plus 2004 number 1
Loren Legarda 16 million plus 2007 number 1
Noli de Castro 15 million plus 2004 won as VP

Other contestants

Chiz Escudero 2007 number 2
Manny Villar 2007 number 5
Jamby Madrigal 2004 number 4
Dick Gordon 2004 number 7
Gilbert Teodoro 3-time congressman
Bayani Fernando 3-time mayor
Ed Panlilio provincial governor
Ed Villanueva 2004 4th place

Except Ramos

There are exceptions to the rule, of course. Most notable was the Secretary of National Defense Fidel Ramos. With no electoral track record to speak of, but carrying the endorsement of his then Commander-in-Chief President Corazon Aquino, Fidel Ramos eventually carried the day.

The second measure in the present scheme of things are the surveys of the two most credible public opinion polling. In the build-up to the campaign proper, they are important in the sense that contributors usually base their choices on the public opinion surveys. But in the final analysis, the final vote will be largely determined by the partisans. No doubt the surveys exert an influence on the decisions of the electorate but only to the extent of influencing the non-partisan votes.

Remember that the typical surveys are the composite opinions of 1,200 respondents, or at most, 7,000 respondents. The purpose and function of political parties is to persuade and in effect, intervene in the decision process.

Composite survey results, SWS and Pulse Asia:

1. Manny Villar
2. Joseph Estrada
3. Mar Roxas/Chiz Escudero
4. Noli de Castro
5. Loren Legarda

Below 4 percent:

Gilbert Teodoro
Bayani Fernando
Ed Panlilio
Eddie Villanieva
Dick Gordon

The Danding playbook

Maybe Gilbert Teodoro can borrow a page from Danding Cojuangco’s playbook in the 1992 campaign. Behind all in the surveys until the last six weeks of the campaign, two weeks before election day, Danding was a close second to Miriam Defensor-Santiago. The strategy was to keep away from Metro Manila until the last minute. We built our strength from the provinces and came to Metro Manila for the final salvo. We were rewarded by the best attended miting de avance at that time.

Machine votes

The third and probably the most important is the realpolitik of every campaign. According to a private think tank that studies political parties, based on memberships, number of congressmen, local officials and barangay officials, the machine votes defined as the number of votes deliverable to the party’s national candidates are as follows:

Lakas-Kampi-CMD 32 percent
PMP-PDP-UNO 27 percent
NPC 24 percent

Liberal Party 22 percent
Nacionalista Party 19 percent

The caveat of the private think tank is that the percentages for the PMP-PDP-UNO is conditional. It is only good if Joseph Estrada is running in 2010.

Gilbert Teodoro can be competitive if he captures the nomination of the ruling party and if GMA stays the course and supports him all the way.

Joseph Estrada leads by 27 percent in Mindanao, according to Pulse Asia. In the same study, Mar Roxas leads in the Visayas by 22 percent. Gilbert, being the only Ilocano speaking candidate can lay claim to the provinces North of the Agno River and parts of Central Luzon. An interesting scenario.

By. Antonio Gatmaitan - Daily Tribune

Making a joke of the polls

Emil Jurado - To the point - Manila Standard Today

In the past, there were perennial nuisance candidates, among them the late Racuyal who was best known for filing his candidacy for president every time there was an election. Come to think of it, we at the 365 Club at the Hotel Intercon also had the late Lucio de Gala, who would challenge every presidential candidate.

For the forthcoming 2010 polls, we also have coming out of the woodwork candidates who believe they could be president. They are the ones who almost always get 1-to-2-percent ratings in Social Weather Stations and Pulse Asia surveys. Yet they continue to make noise about their aspirations. Are they running for the funds of it?

Now comes the biggest joke of all—the candidacy of Pampanga Gov. Ed Panlilio, a priest on leave, who invokes the name of God in his discernment to run for the highest seat in the land. Some gall, indeed, for somebody whose election as governor of Pampanga is now being questioned, who believes that good intentions and idealism are enough to govern well, and who thinks he is the only honest official in Pampanga.

Not to be outdone, my good friend Nandy Pacheco of Ang Kapatiran is fielding an unknown Olongapo councilor, whose name escapes me, to be presidential candidate. This makes the 2010 presidential polls a circus. Send in the clowns, as the song goes!

Panlilio should face reality and refrain from making a joke out of himself. But then, in our kind of democracy, everybody—retired priests included—is free to make a fool of himself.


= = = =


Political party tells CBCP: Don’t ignore ‘JC’

By Christian V. Esguerra - Philippine Daily Inquirer


If Nandy Pacheco is scratching his head these days, it’s not because he needs a shampoo.

It’s rather that, much to his chagrin, it hasn’t apparently washed over the Catholic Church hierarchy that the political party he had organized based on Christian precepts has become real with a true-blue presidential candidate.

The founder of Ang Kapatiran party Sunday was incensed upon reading on the website of the Catholic Bishops Conference of the Philippines (CBCP) that the prelates saw “no qualified ‘presidentiables’ so far.”

“The bishops know that we have a candidate, so I don’t know why this came out,” Pacheco said. “How can they say that when our party was founded precisely on the social teachings of the Church?”

In its latest pastoral statement released this month, the CBCP said “our present situation poses a great and urgent challenge for active lay participation in principled partisan politics.”

“Many even believe that politics as practiced in our country is a structure of evil. It is alarming that crippling apathy and cynicism has crept in even among our young,” the bishops said.

Pacheco, an advocate of nonviolence who also founded the “Gunless Society,” maintains that Kapatiran has been responding to such a call since 2004 when the party was established.

JC is the name

In May, the party announced that it would field a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections—John Carlos “JC” delos Reyes, a low-key councilor and a member of the Gordon clan in Olongapo City.

Delos Reyes was the lone winner from among Kapatiran candidates in the 2007 elections.

Pacheco also rued that the party has yet to be invited to any of the forums gathering prospective presidential candidates.

“We’re the only party with an official presidential candidate so far yet we’ve not been invited to these forums,” he told the Inquirer.

Asked if organizers were probably not taking the party and its candidate seriously, he said: “That’s how it appears.”

“This is our passion and our crucifixion,” Pacheco said. “What we’re doing is difficult because we are swimming against the current. But it’s faith that keeps us going.”

He said he was “hurt” with the CBCP story, but clarified that he was not blaming the bishops. He said some of the prelates had been accommodating the party’s request for visits in their dioceses.

‘Man of pure heart’

Pacheco described Kapatiran’s candidate as “a man of pure heart fighting big-money politics.”

“With JC at the wheel, I can sleep because I know where we are going,” he said.

On Sunday, the Trade Union Congress of the Philippines (TUCP) called on the Commission on Elections (Comelec) to stop the forums and debates for the presidential aspirants, saying they were “premature and inappropriate.”

“Right now, we still don’t have a single presidential candidate. What we have now are individuals supposedly aspiring or planning to be presidential candidates. So it is not correct to be staging so-called ‘presidential’ forums this early,” TUCP secretary-general Ernesto Herrera said in a statement.

According to Herrera, an individual’s “self-proclamation” that he or she is interested in running for president does not make him or her a legitimate presidential candidate.

‘This is silly’

“Right now, just about anyone dreaming to run for president can join the so-called ‘presidential’ forums. This is silly,” Herrera said.

The TUCP, a registered party-list group, did not say if it would file a formal petition in the Comelec to ban such forums.

“What is happening now is that a number of individuals are merely using the untimely forums as platforms to project themselves as possible presidential candidates, and collect political contributions, or to promote their secondary political plans to run for vice president or senator,” Herrera said.

He suggested that sponsors call their forums anything they like, except describing them as “presidential.”

Real presidential forums or debates may only be held after the Nov. 30 deadline for the filing of certificates of candidacy set by the Comelec, the former senator added.

Might that be a reason why Kapatiran’s official candidate has not been invited to these talk shows? Or why the bishops have not taken notice of JC? With a report from Jerome Aning

What’s Dick been smoking?

By Jojo Robles - low down - manila standard today

‘‘Senator Gordon wants to pardon the Abu Sayyaf,” the post on the online message board reads. “Maybe he should get kidnapped in Basilan first before he makes such a [expletives deleted] offer again.”

The post reminds one of a wag’s definition of a conservative as a liberal who’s been mugged. Indeed, Senator Richard Gordon’s immodest proposal could only have come from someone so far removed from the ground that he can actually consider granting amnesty to the members of a lawless criminal syndicate even before they can be made to answer for their heinous crimes.

Even if the suggestion had come from one of those professional bleeding-heart, human-rights activist groups, it would have to be dismissed outright. And it is to the everlasting credit of these groups, in fact, that virtually none of them has even dared to propose something as outrageous as Gordon’s cockamamie amnesty plan.

But this is Gordon, the former tough guy of Olongapo who once ruled a city that grew up around Southeast Asia’s biggest US naval base with an iron hand. And wasn’t the senator’s father, the former Mayor James T. Gordon, himself gunned down at Olongapo’s city hall more than 40 years ago, something that should have convinced the son that punishment should follow crime?

There is nothing in Gordon’s previous public record that would have prepared us for his amnesty plan, except possibly for the fact that he wants to become president next year and may need some votes from Basilan and Sulu. Or maybe that picture of him holding an Aeta child in the aftermath of the Pinatubo eruption and his relatively recent conversion as head of the Philippine Red Cross has pushed him over the liberal edge, where criminals are victims and poverty is the root and justification of all crime.

But why would Gordon want to pardon the Abu Sayyaf, which has made a mockery of government’s efforts to stamp out the barbaric business of kidnapping for ransom and which has embarrassed this country throughout the world? Here’s what Gordon said: “Time has its way of mellowing the minds of people… and the likes of [Abu Sayyaf leader] Radullan Sahiron are becoming mellow in their activities and they’re the ones who could agree to entering into some peaceful program so that they will lay down their arms.”

According to Gordon, the older bandits can convince the younger ones who have inherited their gruesome livelihood to lay down their arms and stop preying on anyone who they think can give them ransom money. He added that the bandit elders would consider amnesty, “especially if there is socio-economic assistance for them.”

What has Gordon been smoking that has made him as mellow as the Abu Sayyaf gangsters that he now proposes to pardon? And isn’t the offer of “laying down their arms” (which sounds like the Abu Sayyaf is some sort of freedom-fighting movement) in exchange for amnesty and economic assistance just another form of ransom payment to these brutal criminals?

* * *

If Gordon is really serious about pardoning the Abu Sayyaf, perhaps he should talk to all those people who were victimized by the kidnap-for-ransom gangs first. And they aren’t just the foreign tourists or aid workers like Eugenio Vagni, who also proposed (right before he left the Philippines, naturally) that we should forgive the bandits.

For every Stockholm Syndrome-sick Vagni, after all, there are dozens of small local traders, professionals and even children who have been abducted for ransom by the gang in the Basilan-Sulu area—many of them abused, tortured, raped and beheaded for some cash. Gordon should ask these people if they are willing to pardon the likes of Abu Sabaya and Al-bader Parad before opening his mouth again on the matter.

Then there’s the military and the police in those two provinces, whose members have been pursuing the Abu Sayyaf for years and losing their lives and those of their comrades because Sahiron and his ilk provide protection to the violent henchmen of this criminal syndicate. How will the military and the police respond to a blanket amnesty offer to the Abu Sayyaf?

While he’s at it, Gordon can even consult the Muslim secessionists in Mindanao and see if they would accept a plan to pardon a group that has been giving the Islamic separatist movement such a bad rep. Gordon will discover that the Moro Islamic Liberation Front will have nothing to do with the kidnappers in Basilan and Sulu—and would be deeply offended if the bandits were offered amnesty while legitimate Moro rebels can’t even make any headway in their peace talks with the government.

No, amnesty isn’t the solution to the problem of the Abu Sayyaf, unless Gordon wants to incite and inflame an entire country that wants to see them brought to justice for their many crimes. If pardoning criminals stopped crime, then the Abu Sayyaf is a real terrorist organization dreaming of a separate Islamic fundamentalist state.

Because the Gordon proposal, at heart, is the logical conclusion of the belief that the Abu Sayyaf does what it does for some purpose other than to make money. Regardless of its origins as a network of terrorists funded by Al-Qaida, the Abu Sayyaf is now merely a criminal organization that funds itself by abducting anyone who looks like he or she could raise some money to pay for their “board and lodging.”

Bring the bandits to justice first. Help the impoverished communities that harbor them and who benefit from their ransom payments, so that the Abu Sayyaf will become anathema to its network of family and friends.

But don’t give them blanket pardon just because they’ve “mellowed” and now want lots of aid so they won’t kidnap people anymore. That’s just plain [expletive deleted] stupid, Dick.